Tinubu’s Men Struggling to Secure 2/3 backing Rivers Emergency Rule

Emerging report has indicate that President Bola Tinubu is facing an uphill battle in his bid to secure two-thirds majority in the national assembly to approve his declaration of emergency rule in Rivers state, according to TheCable.

Recall, On Tuesday, Tinubu declared a state of emergency in the south-south state, citing the protracted political crisis.

The president controversially suspended Siminalayi Fubara, governor of the state, Ngozi Odu, his deputy, and all house assembly members for six months.

Tinubu nominated Ibok-Ete Ibas, a retired vice-admiral and former chief of naval staff, as the administrator.

For the emergency rule to take effect, section 305 (2) of the constitution states that the president must transmit the proclamation to the senate president and the speaker of the house of representatives.

There is a raging debate on where the president derived the power to suspend an elected governor from as this is not expressly provided for in the 1999 constitution.

There is also no provision for the appointment of an administrator in the constitution, although President Olusegun Obasanjo set the disputed precedent.

TWO-THIRDS ROADBLOCK

Section 305 (6) stipulates that a “proclamation issued by the President under this section shall cease to have effect (b) if it affects the Federation or any part thereof and within two days when the National Assembly is in session, or within ten days when the National Assembly is not in session, after its publication, there is no resolution supported by two-thirds majority of all the members of each House of the National Assembly approving the proclamation.”

With 360 members in the green chamber and 109 in the red chamber, Tinubu needs at least 240 votes in the house of reps and 73 in the senate for his proclamation to stand.

On the contrary, it takes only 36 senators to defeat the proclamation.

Even if the senate passes it, 121 reps can vote it down.

Sources in the national assembly told TheCable that the president’s foot soldiers are struggling to get the numbers.

Owing to the insufficient numbers, the senate on Wednesday deferred the motion to Thursday.

Sources say many lawmakers remain unconvinced about the necessity and legality of Tinubu’s action which they believe could set a dangerous precedent.

An insider said lawmakers are divided along party lines, with opposition members and even some members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) wary of endorsing the emergency rule.

If the president fails to secure the two-thirds majority in both chambers to approve the emergency rule by Thursday as stipulated in the constitution, Tinubu will be forced to revoke his proclamation, effectively restoring Fubara and his administration.

QUORUM QUAGMIRE

Another major challenge, some lawmakers told TheCable, is that both the senate and house of reps are struggling to form a quorum because many members are out of the country.

A significant number of the lawmakers are in Saudi Arabia observing the lesser hajj and Ramadan fasting.

The quorum for senate is 37 while that of the house is 120.

“Even if we manage to form a quorum, the constitution says the vote shall involve all members — meaning 109 in the senate and 360 in the house,” a member of the house of reps told TheCable.

The leaders of the national assembly were collecting signatures on Wednesday night so that members can vote in absentia — but some lawmakers have pointed out that it will be unconstitutional.

Section 305 (2) of the 1999 constitution stipulates that president of the senate and the speaker of the house shall “convene” or “arrange for a meeting” to consider the situation “and decide whether or not to pass a resolution approving the proclamation”.

“There is no provision for absentee or WhatsApp voting,” a senator told TheCable on Wednesday night.

“Every member will stand up and declare if they are in support of or against the declaration of the state of emergency.”

‘A BIG MISCALCULATION’

An APC senator told TheCable that the president did not do his homework before declaring the state of emergency “and he has now put us in a difficult situation”.

The constitution stipulates in subsection 6 that for the proclamation to have effect, it must be approved within two days if the national assembly is in session — or ten days if it is not.

“We had adjourned till Wednesday when the president made the announcement, so automatically we are in session and that means we have to vote within two days, latest Thursday,” he said.

“If he had co-ordinated well with us, we would have adjourned indefinitely before the proclamation — and that means we would have had 10 days to get our act together and gather the numbers.”

On Tuesday night, after the president declared the emergency rule, Akin Rotimi, spokesperson of the house of representatives, said Tinubu consulted the national assembly before the announcement.

Rotimi added that Tinubu’s letter informing the house of representatives of his decision, and seeking approval on the state of emergency in Rivers in line with section 305 of the constitution, has been transmitted to the green chamber and would be read during plenary on Wednesday for further legislative action.

However, the letter was not read on the floor of the green chamber on Wednesday.

The senate stepped down a motion for the consideration of the emergency rule during Wednesday’s plenary.

The motion, listed as the first item for discussion, was put on hold before any debate could take place