Petroleum marketers have cautioned that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly known as petrol, could surpass N1,000 per litre following President Bola Tinubu’s endorsement of a 15 per cent ad valorem import tariff on fuel imports.
The new directive, set to take effect after a 30-day transition period ending on 21 November 2025, forms part of the government’s plan to safeguard local refiners and curb the influx of cheaper imported products that undermine domestic refining investments.
However, marketers warn that the decision might backfire, pushing retail prices beyond the reach of average Nigerians.
In separate telephone interviews on Thursday, several depot operators with direct knowledge of the issue—who requested anonymity—stated that the policy could further escalate petrol prices, which already hover around N920 per litre in many parts of the country.
“As it is, the price of fuel may go above N1,000 per litre. I don’t know why the government will be adding more to people’s suffering,” one depot operator said.
Another operator added, “Unfortunately, some of the importers are working in alignment with Dangote, which is why the last price increase was general; all players raised their prices at once. Let’s just wait and see what happens next.”
A third depot operator warned that without a defined framework to stabilise market forces and ensure fair competition, the new duty could spark another round of price hikes and worsen consumer hardship.
The National Vice-President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Hammed Fashola, also acknowledged that the tariff would likely cause a price surge.
Fashola said the policy carries both positive and negative outcomes, noting it could discourage importation while boosting local refining efforts.
He expressed concern that some marketers might view the policy as an opportunity to monopolise the sector in favour of Dangote and a few other refiners.
“The 15 per cent tariff on imported fuel has its own implications. Maybe the price will go up, and equally, it will discourage importers from bringing in fuel if it becomes too costly.
“But it has both negative and positive effects on the sector. I see that the government is trying to protect local refiners, but it will have its own implications because people will see it as a way of monopolising the industry for certain people. At the same time, the government aims to protect the local refiners.”
Fashola further cautioned that if local refiners failed to produce sufficient fuel for the domestic market, it could trigger another scarcity.
“If the local refiners fail, it will have its own implications. It may lead to scarcity, and people will not have an alternative. So, it has both positive and negative effects. That’s the way I see it,” he added.
On whether the development aligns with the Petroleum Industry Act, Fashola said, “I don’t think the government will do anything outside the law. They would not like to do anything against the PIA. Ordinarily, everybody would like to see that our local refineries are surviving and they are doing well, which is good for our economy. I don’t think it has anything to do with the PIA.”
Advising local refiners, particularly the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Fashola urged them to meet expectations and expedite the revival of the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries.
“My advice or my prayer is to the new management of NNPC: the way they are going, I think they are going in the right direction, and they have to do it fast by bringing in investors to revive our refineries. If all NNPC refineries can come on board, it will solve a lot of problems. I hear people trying to say that maybe they’re going to practise monopoly, but that will not be there. This applies to other private refineries like BUA; when they are able to come up, I think that the fear of monopoly will not be there anymore. There will be competition among the refineries, and that will be good for us,” Fashola stated.
Meanwhile, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, described the 15 per cent tariff as a balanced policy, noting it would still need to be tested over time.
“Our expectation is that at some point, it might be reviewed. We are looking for product availability and affordability. We must always keep an eagle eye on these two things. That’s what PETROAN will advise at this time. I want Nigerians to know that if we are looking for cheap fuel and we are driving everybody out of the business, the product will not be available, and then prices will skyrocket.
“As it is today, everybody is working with Dangote, and we know that Dangote cannot satisfy the country. So, there has to be a mix of product availability,” he added.
President Tinubu approved the introduction of a 15 per cent ad valorem import duty on petrol and diesel imports into Nigeria.
The initiative is intended to protect domestic refineries and stabilise the downstream oil market. In a letter dated 21 October 2025, made public on 30 October 2025, and addressed to the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, the Federal Inland Revenue Service, and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Tinubu ordered the immediate implementation of the tariff as part of a “market-responsive import tariff framework.”
The letter, signed by his Private Secretary, Damilotun Aderemi, followed a proposal by the Executive Chairman of the FIRS, Zacch Adedeji.
The proposal recommended a 15 per cent duty on the cost, insurance, and freight value of imported petrol and diesel to align import costs with domestic market conditions. The tariff is distinct from the additional 5 per cent surcharge applicable to locally produced and imported fuel under the new tax act starting January 2026.
Adedeji, in his memo, explained that the measure is part of broader reforms aimed at boosting local refining, ensuring price stability, and supporting the naira-based oil economy under the Renewed Hope Agenda for energy security and fiscal sustainability.
According to projections in the letter, the 15 per cent duty could raise the landing cost of petrol by approximately N99.72 per litre, based on average daily consumption of 19.26 million litres as of September 2025. This could generate an additional N1.92bn in daily import costs and government revenue.
The letter read, “At current CIF levels, this represents an increment of approximately N99.72 per litre, which nudges imported landed costs towards local cost recovery without choking supply or inflating consumer prices beyond sustainable thresholds. Even with this adjustment, estimated Lagos pump prices would remain in the range of N964.72 per litre ($0.62), still significantly below regional averages such as Senegal ($1.76 per litre), Côte d’Ivoire ($1.52 per litre), and Ghana ($1.37 per litre).”
It further stated that payments would be made into a designated Federal Government revenue account managed by the Nigeria Revenue Service, with verification and clearance oversight by the NMDPRA.
“The core objective of this initiative is to operationalise crude transactions in local currency, strengthen local refining capacity, and ensure a stable, affordable supply of petroleum products across Nigeria,” Adedeji stated.
