Petrol Prices May Drop to ₦800/Litre as Landing Cost Falls to ₦774

The price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in Nigeria could soon decrease to ₦800 per litre as the landing cost of imported fuel has dropped to ₦774.82 per litre. This makes it lower than Dangote Refinery’s ex-depot price of ₦825 per litre, according to the latest report from the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN).

Data from MEMAN shows that the estimated import parity cost of petrol has fallen by ₦152.56 (16.5%) from ₦927.48 per litre recorded on February 21, 2025. This decline is attributed to the persistent drop in global crude oil prices.

As of March 12, 2025, Brent Crude was priced at $70 per barrel, while US WTI traded at $66.70 per barrel, down from February prices of $76 and $69, respectively. The falling crude oil prices have led to lower import costs, which could drive fuel prices down further to approximately ₦800 per litre from the current retail range of ₦860 to ₦880 per litre in Lagos and Abuja.

At the beginning of March, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) and Dangote Refinery reduced their retail fuel prices to ₦860 and ₦880 per litre. The latest drop in import landing costs is expected to intensify competition between Dangote Refinery, NNPC, and independent fuel importers.

Chinedu Ukadike, spokesperson for the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), stated that a continued decline in crude oil prices could further push petrol prices down to ₦800 per litre.

Last Monday, NNPC cut its retail fuel prices from ₦945–₦965 per litre to ₦860–₦880 per litre in Lagos and Abuja, following Dangote Refinery’s earlier reduction of its ex-depot petrol price from ₦890 to ₦825 per litre—the third price cut in two months.

Billy Gillis-Harry, President of the Petroleum Retailers Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, has urged the Minister of State for Petroleum, Heineken Lokpobiri, to implement a petrol price stability framework to prevent financial losses for retailers and marketers. He also advocated for multiple fuel supply sources to foster competition and ensure that domestic fuel prices remain aligned with global import costs.

Despite Dangote Refinery’s local fuel production, many retailers and marketers continue to rely on imports due to concerns about pricing, market competition, and domestic refining capacity. Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that petrol imports surged by 105% in 2024, reaching ₦15.4 trillion, reflecting Nigeria’s heavy reliance on imported fuel.