As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general elections, succession politics and rising tensions have already gripped several states where incumbent governors are completing their final terms. In Nigerian politics, a smooth succession plan defines a leader’s legacy, making it a make-or-break issue for governors and their parties across affected states.
Traditionally, succession battles have always been thorny in Nigeria, especially in states with entrenched political rivalries. Clashes often stem from competing interests among political godfathers, ethnic blocs, and religious groups. A successful transition requires more than selecting a candidate; it demands balancing historical grievances, personal ambitions, and power blocs.
According to Sunday Sun findings, states experiencing intense succession tension include Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Bauchi, Gombe, Nasarawa, Kwara, and Borno.
Lagos
In Lagos State, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is grappling with heightened internal power struggles following the recently concluded local government elections. With Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu nearing the end of his second term, uncertainty looms as party heavyweights, political godfathers, and influential blocs jostle for control.
Lagos politics has long been shaped by the influence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who anointed successive governors, including Babatunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode, and Sanwo-Olu. However, speculation is rife that Tinubu may be grooming his son, Seyi Tinubu, for the top job, sparking intense debate.
The prospect of Seyi Tinubu’s candidacy has rattled stakeholders since he has never held political office, threatening Lagos APC’s power-sharing balance.
A party source, speaking anonymously, cautioned: “There are lots of speculations… everybody is watching Asiwaju’s body language… APC thrives on discipline and loyalty… when we get there, we will cross the Rubicon.”
Beyond Seyi, the race is drawing other political gladiators, including Deputy Governor Dr Kadiri Obafemi Hamzat, House Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, and Presidential Chief of Staff Femi Gbajabiamila.
Former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode has also declared his intent to contest in 2027, promising a renewed vision while pledging loyalty to President Tinubu: “We believe both President Tinubu and Ambode represent continuity, progress and people-focused governance,” his team stated.
Zoning debates and calls for an indigenous Lagosian governor further deepen the state’s complex succession battles.
Ogun
In Ogun State, Governor Dapo Abiodun’s tenure ends in 2027, and succession intrigues are intensifying. Memories of the 2019 APC crisis under former governor Ibikunle Amosun remain fresh, when his unilateral endorsement of AbdulKabir Akinlade triggered internal divisions.
Allegations now swirl around oath-taking plots involving loyalists of Secretary to the State Government Tokunbo Talabi, allegedly pushing for indirect primaries. One insider accused: “These desperate cronies… are taking ward leaders and youth leaders through oath-taking. This is pure politics of immorality.”
The Ogun APC swiftly denied the allegations, calling them “false, baseless, and politically motivated.”
The state’s political tension also ties to the Ogun West zoning agitation. Since its creation in 1976, Ogun has never produced a governor from Ogun West, home to the Yewa and Awori people. Their renewed push for representation is fuelling heated debates.
At the heart of this agitation is Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi), viewed as the region’s strongest hope. Supporters frame his ambition as a fight for equity and political justice.
Meanwhile, figures like Wale Edun, Sarafadeen Ishola, Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka, and PDP heavyweights Ladi Adebutu, Segun Sowunmi, and Jimi Lawal are also warming up for the governorship race, deepening Ogun’s political fault lines.
Kwara
In Kwara State, Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s second term ends in 2027, creating a fierce contest within the APC. Aspirants include Senator Sadiq Umar, Speaker Salihu Danladi, Senator Saliu Mustapha, and Ambassador Yahaya Seriki, a rumoured Plan B candidate linked to AbdulRazaq.
The PDP, led by Bukola Saraki, is regrouping. Key figures like Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi and Aliyu Ahman-Pategi are expected to contest, making Kwara’s succession battle highly unpredictable.
Gombe
Governor Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya faces delicate succession dilemmas in Gombe State. While he has yet to endorse a candidate, rivals within the APC and PDP are mobilizing. Among them is Mohammed Jibrin Barde, PDP’s 2023 candidate, positioning himself for another run.
Governor Yahaya must carefully manage cabinet ambitions, political blocs, and senatorial demands to avoid destabilizing his base.
Oyo
In Oyo State, Governor Seyi Makinde approaches the end of his second term without naming a successor, fueling tensions within the PDP. Aspirants from marginalized zones, especially Oyo North, are demanding a power shift after years of Ibadan dominance.
Makinde’s alleged centralized control of party affairs has worsened internal friction, prompting resignations of key officials. His silence continues to heighten uncertainty.
Meanwhile, APC heavyweights, including Adebayo Adelabu, Teslim Folarin, Bayo Shittu, and Rilwan Akanbi, are preparing to challenge the PDP in 2027.
Borno
Governor Babagana Zulum, widely respected for his security-focused governance, will complete his final term in 2027. Speculation surrounds his successor, with Deputy Governor Umar Usman Kadafur emerging as a strong contender.
The influence of Vice President Kashim Shettima and President Bola Tinubu adds weight to the calculations, making Borno’s succession an intense power contest.
Nasarawa
In Nasarawa State, Governor Abdullahi Sule faces rising tension as prominent figures across party lines prepare for battle, including Senator Aliyu Wadada, Dr Musa Ahmed Muhammed, Muhammed-Hassan Abdullahi, and David Emmanuel Ombugadu. The crowded field underscores the high stakes of the 2027 race.
